College football Week 7 is shaping up to be a fun week of ball.
We’ve got a few matchups that feature top-ranked teams facing one another, and we’re only a few weeks out from the first official College Football Playoff rankings.
So who am I backing this week?
Keep reading to find out where I’m wagering my money.
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Is this the game where the Trojans, under Lincoln Riley, beat a team that’s more physical than them?
I’m not counting on it.
Riley has won 30 games in his three-plus seasons at USC, with only two of them against teams that could be considered better in the trenches. That was Notre Dame in 2022 and LSU to start the 2024 season.
Otherwise, the losses under Riley are mostly the same.
USC’s opponents often both block and tackle better. That happened twice against Utah in 2022. Then there was Notre Dame, Washington (Joe Moore Award winner) and Oregon in 2023. Then last season, it was this very Michigan team, Penn State and Notre Dame.
While these games are not blowout losses, they tend to follow the same theme: USC is not able to run the ball or stop the run.
Why would Saturday be any different?
Michigan beat USC last season by rushing for nearly 300 yards while throwing for a paltry 32 yards. Michigan’s passing game is far better this season with true freshman Bryce Underwood, and the run game is just as effective.
When you take out sack yardage, the Wolverines’ rushing attack ranks sixth in the country in rushing efficiency. They are also sixth in yards before contact, which means the offensive line is clearing the way for Justice Haynes to have more than 700 yards rushing this season.
On top of all that, USC’s rushing defense is not good.
The Trojans are 89th in success rate and have allowed a decent amount of explosive plays. They have been poor at stopping the rush on passing downs. If SC can force Michigan into passing, maybe the Trojans can force Underwood into mistakes. He, after all, has only completed 59% of his passes and USC’s pass rush can get after it. It ranks fifth in pressure rate. The Trojans also need to keep Underwood in the pocket.
SC’s offense has been fantastic this season. The Trojans are first in points per drive and third in passing success. Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are up there with the top pair of receivers in the country. The offensive line, when healthy, has played better this season.
On the other hand, Michigan’s defense has faced Oklahoma and Nebraska. The Wolverines will be prepared for USC.
In the end, I need to see USC win this game before I believe it.
PICK: Michigan (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
I try my best not to wager on my team, but I do believe Oregon will win and cover this game.
The Ducks are better, and we’ve seen Indiana struggle in the last two seasons against teams of Oregon’s caliber.
However, that is not my official play for the game.
I’m targeting a prop instead.
Oregon’s quarterback, Dante Moore, has started fast this season, and after his play against Penn State, we’ve seen his Heisman stock skyrocket. The Ducks will need Moore to play well in this game to get what they want on offense. Indiana’s defensive line is stout in the middle and Oregon is going to avoid running the ball directly into that mess of bodies, instead using the passing game.
The Hoosiers gave up a long throw to Illinois and there were other opportunities left on the field. Iowa’s quarterbacks aren’t good but managed to throw for almost 200 yards against Indiana. The Hoosiers also play mostly zone coverage and Moore is completing 80% of his passes against zone coverage.
The Ducks’ stable of receivers should be able to isolate some of the weaker Indiana secondary pieces and get yards after the catch.
PICK: Dante Moore Over 259.5 passing yards
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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